{"id":3539,"date":"2012-08-31T16:20:18","date_gmt":"2012-09-01T00:20:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/experimentalmath.info\/blog\/?p=3539"},"modified":"2012-09-03T15:48:54","modified_gmt":"2012-09-03T23:48:54","slug":"ann-romney-and-my-brother","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/experimentalmath.info\/blog\/2012\/08\/ann-romney-and-my-brother\/","title":{"rendered":"Ann Romney and my Brother"},"content":{"rendered":"

My brother, Peter Borwein<\/a>, is a distinguished Canadian mathematician \u00a0who has something intimate in common with Ann Romney<\/a>.\u00a0They both have multiple sclerosis. But as you will see \u00a0from the following letter that he just \u00a0wrote to me, the differences outweigh their similarities.<\/p>\n

Ann Romney was diagnosed with multiple sclerosi<\/a>s (MS) in 1998. She was born in 1949. I was diagnosed with MS in 1996. I was born in 1953. \u00a0Exact dates of diagnosis are inexact.\u00a0 MS rarely has an exact starting date.\u00a0 But we were both in our mid-to-late forties: a little atypically-late onset but not extreme.<\/span><\/p>\n

We \u00a0are not rare. In fact, we have a common neurological disease. A reasonable estimate is that we are half a million strong in North America and two million world wide.\u00a0<\/span>It is not \u00a0a disease of the tropics.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Both of us will die with MS, quite possibly from complications. How long is variable. But no one is cured, despite a recent CNN claim that Anne Romney had beaten<\/em> the disease. No one ever has. One can be lucky and \u00a0have long remissions. But that is not a cure.<\/span><\/p>\n

About twenty per cent are lucky enough never to enter the progressive stage. But only 20%. I already have progressive MS. Likely Anne doesn’t yet, at least by appearances, but the odds are that she will within roughly 15 years of onset.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is the average. Once again there are no guarantees: 75% can still walk after 15 years from onset. Hence, 25% can’t. I could still ski in 2000, but for the last five years I’ve been totally wheelchair bound. Such are the vagaries of MS.<\/span><\/p>\n

I hope Ann Romney’s\u00a0 progress is slower. I wish this for every victim of MS. Pseudoscience often trumps evidence in the alternative medical approaches to MS.\u00a0 Witness the Swank diet<\/a>. The only proven therapies are the disease modifying drugs like Rebif \u00a0<\/em>(Merck’s version of \u00a0an interferon based drug<\/a>).<\/span><\/p>\n

These drugs are expensive and imperfect. In principle they slow down the progress of disease. This is what the statistics indicate. But it is impossible to tell, for any individual, if they are working. How do you know that the slowing of the disease was due to the drugs and not just the course of the MS with its natural ups and downs? \u00a0You don\u2019t and you can\u2019t !<\/span><\/p>\n

But at least there is some statistical evidence from a large sample of users. This \u00a0is not the case for the alternative therapies. Individual testimonials are meaningless, though they abound and cloud the science. Certainly, there is nothing resembling a cure. Progress has been frustratingly slow.<\/span><\/p>\n

I anticipated Ann\u2019s speech to the Republican convention.\u00a0 My pre-speech thoughts were ambivalent.\u00a0 I admire that she went public about her disease in front of a national audience.\u00a0 The\u00a0 potential voting block of MS sufferers is large enough to swing a close election.\u00a0 But, independent of motivation, going public about one’s diseases can’t be easy.\u00a0 However, she has now made her MS public and so also made it fair game for commentary.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span>So here are some thoughts.\u00a0 MS is expensive.\u00a0 Most people with MS — like most people with chronic disease\u00a0 — \u00a0live in poverty.\u00a0 The following are underestimates of my costs.\u00a0 My doctor-wife and I are comfortably middle-class but certainly no Romneys. Our costs over just the past five years include:<\/span><\/p>\n