Misuse of probability by “creation scientists”

It often comes as a shock to professional scientists to learn that a large fraction of the public rejects much if not all of the evolutionary framework of modern geology and biology. For example, in a recent poll, 44% of Americans surveyed agreed that God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years [Gallup]. Another indication of the popularity of this worldview, often termed “young-earth creationism”, is the fact that over 700,000 Americans have attended the “Creation Museum” near Cincinnati, Ohio since its opening in 1977. Displays at the museum insist

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Numeracy, relative risk and public policy

Forget the ‘precautionary principle.’ The amount of risk to which the public should be exposed is greater than zero. —Michael Krauss, Financial Post, June 20, 2008.

Almost without exception the critical or contentious issues of our times involve numbers–even “intelligent design” advocates usually try to juggle inconvenient dates or data. Errors with numbers are ubiquitous. Sometimes these are amusing as with:

Ideal Toy Company stated on the package of the original Rubik cube that there were more than three billion possible states the cube could attain. It’s analogous to MacDonald’s proudly announcing that they’ve sold more

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